By Peter O’Shea
As the clock ticked closer to 8 pm EST on Tuesday evening, the world held its breath.
Trump has given no shortage of shocking statements since the beginning of this brutal war, but promising that “a whole civilization will die tonight” sank to a new level of genocidal depravity.
Diplomatic negotiations mediated by Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt initially bore no results. And the Iranian regime showed no signs of backing down, threatening “devastating retaliation” should the US target civilian infrastructure.
Then, in the 11th hour, Pakistan’s PM proposed a truce: an immediate two-week ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Whether Trump’s threats were mere bluster – last-ditch efforts to apply maximum pressure on Iran – is difficult to say. Nonetheless, a collective sigh of relief reverberated throughout the globe as a potential catastrophe was averted.
Massive setback for US imperialism
Trump was quick to declare “complete victory”. A BBC article analysing the ceasefire outrageously lent credence to this argument, claiming: “[Trump] made a dramatic threat and achieved the desired result.” But a look at the 10-point plan forwarded by Iran and shared widely by multiple news outlets as the plan Trump himself said was “a workable basis on which to negotiate”, shows that this is a massive setback for US imperialism.
- The US should commit, in principle, to guarantee non-aggression
- Iran’s continued control of the Strait of Hormuz
- Iran’s uranium enrichment right should be accepted
- Lifting of all primary sanctions
- Lifting of all secondary sanctions
- Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions
- Termination of all IAEA Board of Governors resolutions
- Payment of compensation for damages inflicted on Iran
- Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region
- Cessation of the war on all fronts, including against the heroic Islamic resistance in Lebanon
The most brass-necked propagandists would struggle to manufacture a narrative that spins a US victory. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth tried, stating “Iran begged for this ceasefire, and we all know it”, and that the US has secured a “historic and overwhelming victory.”
In fact, the US has flatly rejected many of these demands in previous rounds of negotiations. More confusion abounds as the New York Times reported that the demands published by Iran “were not the ones Trump was referring to”, though what exactly he was referring to is yet to be clarified. Regardless, none of the purported war aims have been achieved: the Iranian regime still stands, with even more hardline figures stepping into the fold; the US has only eliminated approximately one-third of Iran’s missile arsenal; Hezbollah and the Houthis have shown that they are still forces to be reckoned with; and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz can hardly be considered a strategic success given its closure only came in response to US aggression.
Trump agreeing to a ceasefire in these conditions reflects his desperate search for an off-ramp from a disastrous miscalculation, one that has undermined his rule and marks a new phase in the historic decline of US imperialism. But so humiliating are Iran’s conditions that it’s difficult to see Trump fully accepting them. He will continue to walk an impossible tightrope of preserving his strongman posture while attempting to mitigate the economic and political fallout of this disastrous war.
Massive miscalculation
Indeed, from the get-go, there was no clear reason given by Trump for this war – his nominal war aims have remained evasive and contradictory. The notion that Iran represented an “imminent threat” was never credible. Now it’s clear that even central figures in US intelligence knew this to be the case, as indicated in the resignation letter of former director of the National Counterterrorism Centre, Joe Kent. Likewise, in written remarks for a congressional hearing, Tulsi Gabbard stated that the 12-day war in June 2025 “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme, with no evidence that they were seeking to rebuild.
The truth is that after the colonial adventure in Venezuela, Trump felt the wind in his sails and saw an opportunity to eliminate another historic enemy of US imperialism, part of a broader strategy to reassert the waning power of the US empire through unbridled military might. Mounting domestic crises and fractures in MAGA over the administration’s handling of the Epstein files (which detail Trump’s unspeakably vile abuse of women and girls) also pushed Trump into a political gamble to boost his prestige.
Flawed intelligence supplied by Israel that the Iranian regime was at the point of collapse convinced the President that now was the time to strike. While the Zionist regime remains a junior partner to US imperialism, there was an element of Israel bouncing the US into this war. The Israeli State saw Trump’s presidency as offering the most favourable conditions to eliminate their foremost enemy, and was able to convince the administration it could pick up an easy win.
Underestimation of Iranian regime
But Trump’s initial hopes that the Iranian people would overthrow the Iranian regime quickly went up in smoke. Blinded by imperial hubris, he sought a simple repeat of Venezuela – decapitate the regime and replace it with something far more pliant to US imperialism. Yet, the “unconditional surrender” that Trump demanded was always ruled out. In fact, the weakened position of the Iranian ruling class following the historic protest wave in January meant that bending the knee to the US would herald its collapse. Resistance to US imperialism has therefore become an existential question for the theocratic dictatorship.
Trump himself admitted he was surprised by Iran’s response, in particular its targeting of critical energy infrastructure in the Gulf states, where his family has significant investments. While outmatched militarily, Iran has shown its capacity to wreak economic havoc on a world scale through its closure of the Strait of Hormuz and disruption of other regional energy chokepoints.
Domestic pressures
Although Trump claims that the Strait’s closure “doesn’t really affect” the US economy, gasoline prices jumped 36% since the war began. The bite of the cost-of-living crisis has peeled support away from Trump. While oil prices came down in response to the ceasefire announcement it may take months before that’s reflected at gas pumps, while the disruption to fertilizer supply chains will likely still see food costs climb.
But this was an unpopular war from the start: about 61% of Americans are opposed – markedly different to previous wars and invasions – a reflection of a sea change in attitudes after the experiences of Iraq and Afghanistan, the bankrolling of Israel’s genocide in Gaza, and a more fundamental questioning about the countless traumas US imperialism has inflicted on the Global South. Millions turned out in cities across the US for the 28 March ‘No Kings’ protests, many organically linking ICE’s domestic war on immigrants to the US imperialist adventure in Iran.
Already there are indications he’s lost sections of voters he won over in 2024. A recent survey found that “20% of 2024 Trump voters may not vote Republican in 2028, and that almost 57% of voters who switched from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024 are considering abandoning the Republican party in 2028.” As Trump pushes for a record $1.5 trillion defence budget, partially financed through federal cuts to health and social services, many more can draw radical conclusions about the twisted logic of a system that prioritises death and destruction over care and basic human needs. There has been an unprecedented 1,000% rise in the number of US soldiers considering conscientious objection in the context of the Iran War.
Consequences for MAGA
Nevertheless, a poll conducted by NBC found that 90% of “self-identified MAGA-aligned Republicans” supported the war. That is, the MAGA movement’s more hardened core is still with Trump. The loss of broader support in society may see Trump try to galvanise his most reactionary social base and push him further in an even more right-wing, authoritarian direction. The Save America Act, a blatant attempt at voter disenfranchisement, is one example, and more anti-democratic attacks are likely.
Israel threatens fragile ceasefire
Despite US-Israel coordination and partial strategic convergence, their interests are not identical. Israel is undoubtedly lamenting the US retreat and may try to torpedo a fragile ceasefire. The key ally of the US in the region has increasingly strained the leash of its imperialist master. Despite Shebaza Sharif’s claim that the ceasefire extended to Israel’s war on Lebanon, the Zionist regime has intensified its murderous campaign, carrying out its largest wave of attacks since fighting began. Taking a page out of its ghastly Gaza playbook, the IOF carried out 100 airstrikes in 10 minutes in densely populated neighbourhoods, killing hundreds of people.
It is also engaged in mass ethnic cleansing of Lebanon’s Shia population, Hezbollah’s base of support, stoking the flames of sectarian division and encouraging Christians and Druze communities to expel their Shia neighbours. All the while steeping to new levels of depravity in its genocide of the Palestinians, with increased settler violence in the occupied West Bank and the newly approved law enshrining the death penalty as the default punishment of Palestinian prisoners accused of ‘an act of terrorism’.
But this is a disaster for Netanyahu who banked on bringing down the Iranian regime. His government also understated the strength and military prowess of Hezbollah as the IOF faced significant resistance from its fighters. The situation was summed by Israeli opposition leader Yair Golan who said on X:
“He promised a historic victory and security for generations, and in practice, we got one of the most severe strategic failures Israel has ever known… It’s a total failure that endangers Israel’s security for years to come.”
Trump, product and accelerant of imperial decline
Whether or not the ceasefire holds, this can be deemed a historic setback for US imperialism, laying bare the limits of its power and the extent of its decline over the last few decades. Long gone are the days when the US held uncontested hegemony over the capitalist world: the post-war liberal rules-based order that enshrined US mastery of the globe has crumbled, and the unipolar world ushered in after the collapse of the Soviet Union has been replaced by a multipolar one.
In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it appeared the Western alliance was revived and consolidated. Things look very different now as key US allies refuse to provide military assistance to open the Strait of Hormuz and Trump ramps up his criticisms of NATO. In reality, there has been an important breakdown in the Western alliance that has existed since the end of the Second World War. On top of this the US empire’s chief rival, China have come out of this strengthened, as the limits of American power and its decline have become more apparent.
Of course, this does not signal the beginning of a more humane capitalism: the breakdown of traditional alliances is fuelling dramatic global military build-up, flashpoints and wars, that will mean death, destruction and hardship of billions of people.
The threat of escalation remains
A key factor motivating the ceasefire was the real potential for the US to become bogged down in yet another quagmire, the type of forever wars that the self-annointed “Peace President” railed against in his election campaign. Even a limited ground invasion to seize uranium or reopen the Strait of Hormuz would be extremely risky, absorb massive resources and unlikely to achieve any long-term success. And the much vaunted rescue mission of a downed US airforce pilot, gave a taste of the extreme difficulties the US would encounter if boots were put on the ground.
Yet, regardless of the pitfalls of further escalation, wars have their own logic. Thousands of additional troops have been deployed to West Asia, including an amphibious assault unit of 2,200 marines. Trump will feel pressure to maintain his strongman posture and prove the invincibility of US power. Likewise, the bonapartist nature of the Trump 2.0 regime, the increasing concentration of power and entourage of Yes Men (and a few women), makes this danger all the more potent.
Iran regime boosted
While many Iranians celebrated the killing of Khamenei, breathing a sigh of relief that an authoritarian butcher had met his end, the mood has since changed as the brutal realities of US and Israeli bombardment have become apparent.
That may see some layers row-in behind the Iranian regime, but the masses will not rally around a pro-capitalist dictatorship that killed thousands of protesters mere months ago, even those that retain a deep anti-imperialist sentiment. The US-Israeli war actually gives the weakened Iranian regime the pretext to tighten repression even further, dampening the possibility for a resurgence of an independent mass movement.
While in no way underestimating the historic crisis the regime has experienced over the last years, from the Women, Life, Freedom feminist revolt to the more recent rebellion, it will be relatively strengthened by its response to this war.
The capitalist hellscape
We stand for the defeat of US imperialism and the Zionist State in these wars in Iran and Lebanon – such an outcome would be in the interests of the working class and oppressed globally. These warmongers have been dealt a blow which is something to be welcomed. But for these imperialist forces and their brutal allies in the Arab States to be decisively defeated, it will require a movement from below of the working class and the poor and oppressed masses in their own states.
At the same time, we give no political support to the theocratic dictatorship in Iran and its pro-capitalist allies. The Iranian regime has not only brutally repressed its own people, it has also cravenly implemented policies on behalf of the imperialist-controlled World Bank and IMF, inflicting misery on its people. Today, 90% of Iranians work in precarious employment and much of the economy has been privatised in recent decades, while its ruling elite, including the so-called ‘Revolutionary Guard’, has amassed enormous fortunes at their expense.
The struggle to overthrow this dictatorship and defeat imperialism is not mutually exclusive – as some “campists” on the left essentially argue – they complement each other. Independent working-class organisation and mobilisation from below for the revolutionary transformation of Iran and the region are what must be struggled for.
This means a democratic, socialist West Asia, based on governments of the working class and poor, where its wealth is collectively owned and democratically controlled and planned in the interests of all. The struggle to end imperialist domination and exploitation, to bring about freedom for Palestine and other oppressed nationalities, for women’s liberation and democratic rights, is invariably bound up with this programme.
Events in the region reflect the utter rot of capitalism and imperialism in the 2020s, a decaying social order that offers no way forward for humanity, and condemns the working-class and oppressed to never-ending horrors of war, genocide and ecological degradation. Though the US and Zionist war machines have been exposed as far from all powerful, they remain a potent danger for the working class and oppressed in the region and globally.
